Manh Sha spoke of plot to kill him - Februar 17, 2008
Unknown gunmen assassinated Pado Manh Sha, leader of the Karen National Union, in his Mae Sot home on Thursday afternoon. In a recent unpublished interview with journalist Phil Thornton, he discussed plots to kill him and his hopes for the Karen.
          Pado Manh Sha sat outside his home, enjoying the late-afternoon sunset, after an interview with a foreign analyst on Thursday.
          A blue pickup stopped outside. A man got out of the vehicle and walked to the house, shook hands with Mahn Sha and then shot him dead. One of Manh Sha's staff gave chase as the gunman and an accomplice fled.
          In our interview, Manh Sha said he had received warnings and took seriously an intelligence report that the Burmese military dictatorship had plans to kill Karen National Union leaders.
          He said Karen intelligence officers had briefed him and he had warned other leaders to up their security. Manh Sha expected the attempt on his life would be at night and had taken steps to sleep in various locations. But he insisted on spending his days at his home, mainly because he enjoyed the view across the paddy field from his seat on the porch.
          Saw Hla Henry, a Karen leader, said Manh Sha would be missed. "He was a strong man for the Karen people. He was smart and detested by the [Burmese] regime. Everything he was, was for the Karen; all Karen."
          He was a constant thorn in the junta's plans to show the international community it was moving towards democracy. "We want to resolve our problems by peaceful means, but the Burmese don't want that; they like the battlefield too much," he said in the interview.
          Manh Sha was incensed by attacks on Karen villagers that had forced 76,000 to relocate. The Thai-Burma Border Consortium says the Burmese army destroyed more than 3,000 villages between 1996 and 2006 in Karen State.
          "These people are not soldiers. They're civilians. They [the Burmese army] kill, burn, torture our people and landmine our villages. We want peace, justice and we want to be part of a federation of Burma."
          Manh Sha was an internationalist. He was enthusiastic about plans to form an ethnic alliance with Burmese opposition groups that could effectively combat the regime. "The time of dictators is over - we live in the 21st century. It's time for the Burmese generals to make genuine peace with their people," he said.
          Always accommodating to the international community and news media, Manh Sha felt more needed to be done for them to see Burma as more than a local problem.

KNU chief's killing a blow for Burma's democracy movement - Februar 15, 2008
The assassination of a senior Karen rebel leader on the Thai-Burma border has dealt a severe blow not only to the Karen insurgency but also for the country's pro-democracy movement, observers said Friday.
          Karen National Union (KNU) general secretary Mahn Sha was gunned down in his home in Mae Sot, Thailand, Thursday afternoon by unknown assailants.
          "A black-coloured vehicle parked in front of his house at about 4:00 pm and one man came out with a bouquet of flowers," said Blooming Night Zan, secretary for the Karen Women's Organization.
          "He greeted Mahn Sha in Karen, saying 'good evening uncle,' and then shot him," Zan told Deutsche Presse Agentur dpa from Mae Sot, 380 kilometres north of Bangkok.
          A second assassin from the car, which had a Thai licence plate, then shot Mahn Sha twice in the body, leaving him dead.
          Thai police found the car parked near the Moei River, which defines the Thai-Burma border, but have yet to identify the assailants.
          Karen sources suspect the gunmen were members of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, a Karen splinter group that broke with the KNU in 1995 and is now allied with the Burmese army.
          The slaying of Mahn Sha was seen as a great blow for the KNU, an insurgency that has been fighting for the autonomy of the Karen State for the past six decades, and for Burma's pro-democracy movement.
          "For the Burmese audience Mahn Sha was the second most popular Karen leader after Bo Mya," said Win Min, a Thailand-based Burmese scholar.
          "His death is a loss for the Burmese pro-democracy movement as a whole, since Mahn Sha was one of the few Karen leaders who was accepted by the various groups within the movement, especially those acting in exile," said Win Min.
          But more specifically, his murder was another blow for the KNU. Bo Mya, the military leader of the Karen National Liberation Army, died in December 24, 2006, from illness. His demise was a major blow for the insurgency and a source of further splits within the remaining forces.
          In February 2007, the KNU's 7th Brigade split off from the main force and entered into peace negotations with Burma's junta.
          The 7th Brigade is one faction of the more active forces within the KNU, which has been waging a guerrilla struggle against the central government for the independence of the Karen State since 1949.
          There are an estimated 4,000 KNU troops still in the field against the junta.
          The KNU is one of the last ethnic minority insurgencies that has refused to enter into a peace agreements with the ruling junta, which has monopolized politcal power in the country since 1962.
          Mahn Sha's murder has at least highlighted the plight of the Karen, whose struggle has often been overlooked by the international community, Win Min noted.
          In Washington DC, US Congressman Joe Pitts, in a statement on Mahn Sha's death, said the assassination should draw world attention to the ongoing persecution of the Karen and other ethnic minorities by the Myanmar regime.
          "For too long, the plight of the people of Burma has either been ignored or discussed ad nauseam with little or no action on behalf of the people," said Pitts
          "With over 1.5 million internally displaced persons and refugees as a result of the brutal attacks by the dictatorship's army, it is time for change. The international community must ensure that what happened to Mahn Sha does not happen to any other ethnic, democracy, or religious leader in Burma," he added.
          Burma's junta has been carrying out a large-scale offensive against the KNU for the past two years, forcing about 30,000 Karens to flee their homes and seek shelter in camps for "displaced persons" along the Thai border, while thousands of others continue to lead a precarious existence in their homeland.

Little hope in Burmese junta's democratic bluster - Februar 12, 2008
Imagining Thailand as a fully-fledged democratic state is difficult enough. The Burmese government's announcement that it plans to hold a referendum on the new constitution in May and general elections in 2010, paving the way for a transition from a totalitarian to a democratic regime, is even more unimaginable. Burma is a country where democracy has been alienated since 1962.
          On Saturday, Burmese state radio and television broadcast the surprising news of a proposed date for a nationwide referendum and announced a time frame for general elections, signalling the end of the military government that refused to hand over power to the winner of the 1990 election - the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Since then Suu Kyi has been in and out of house arrest and barred from the National Convention, which was first convened in 1993.
          Why has the international community reacted to Burma's announcement of a referendum and election with such indifference? Some of Burma's neighbours rushed to congratulate the country, regarding its decision as "a positive political development". Beyond the diplomatic niceties, however, the same neighbours also remarked on the dangers of Burma's ongoing political process, which has remained exclusive to certain power groups, especially those in the military.
          Therefore, the process of inclusiveness, whereby all political factions are supposed to partake in the move towards democracy, is still open to scepticism. Political camps, including the NLD and ethnic minority groups, are being left out. The Burmese military government has failed, deliberately or otherwise, to reconcile with the opposition. It has continued to disregard engaging in dialogue as being key to a political breakthrough.
          At the heart of this failure lies the state's reluctance to surrender its political power. As a result, Burma has slipped into a political and economic coma. The regime has been notorious for its appalling human-rights record. The national economy is on the verge of collapse, leaving most Burmese in deep poverty and some near starvation.
          This latest political move must also be viewed with suspicion because of the overflowing level of confidence within the Burmese leadership regarding a successful political transition. The military government is so confident of the constitution being approved in the referendum that it has already set a date for national elections in 2010.
          Nyan Win, spokesman of the NLD, said the party was astounded by the announcement. "I am surprised that they set a date for an election when no one has seen the final version of the proposed constitution."
          The government-appointed commission in charge of drafting the new constitution consists mainly of military men or those with connections to the junta. As Nyan Win emphasised, "This one-sided proposal means that the military junta will continue its rule in Burma".
          One of the main points in the constitution is the guarantee that the military's role in politics will continue. Having been a domineering force in national politics for almost 50 years, the military has made it known that it will not give up power easily. Moreover, the fact that certain segments of the international community have acknowledged the necessity of the military's involvement in the country's political transition has strengthened its political ambitions because it can now consider itself an indispensable factor in the political development process.
          But the reality is that the military is dispensable. Little attention is paid to the able men in the Burmese bureaucracy. These civil servants have been behind major administrative works involving infrastructure, transportation and education as well as foreign affairs while top military leaders are indulging themselves with power politics in the jungle of Naypyidaw.
          This explains why there are rumours that General Than Shwe, the chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is badly informed on the real situation in his country. Apparently, he does not believe that the Burmese are living in the harsh conditions alleged by foreign governments. This ignorance of Than Shwe is, of course, highly debatable. He must at least have some idea of how much money from the sale of lucrative gas and oil has passed through his hands and how little has been left for the people.
          The junta's unexpected announcement on Saturday could signify an attempt to delay the political transition rather than to speed up the democratisation process even when the dates of the referendum and election have been fixed.
          The junta is using the new political timeline to prolong its political well-being, covering itself with the empty promise that the country's military era has come to an end. Unfortunately, this era will not end unless Suu Kyi and the ethnic minorities are part of the political change.
          The decision to announce early elections could also be linked to international politics. Burma has tried hard to alleviate intense sanctions from the global community, especially after its crackdown on street protesters in September last year. In the past few months, Western powers have called for harsher sanctions against cronies and supporters of the military regime. Economic punishments, which have long been a cause of severe hardship for ordinary Burmese, are now being felt by the top echelons in the military regime.
          China is also believed to be behind the sudden Burmese inclination towards democracy. But Beijing is not necessarily playing the good guy here. Acting in its own interests, it has recently embarked on a mission to eliminate negative publicity ahead of the Beijing Olympics in August, including the downplaying of the Burmese issue.
          A democratic Burma in 2010? It is still highly inconceivable. Pretentiously democratic states in the region, and in Burma's own neighbourhood, exemplify how democracy, no matter how precious, could be an unwanted asset for certain power-holders.