Nachrichtenarchiv Thailand
A recirculation of elites in Thai politicsThai politicians usually come and go through a process known in political theory as the "circulation of elites". According to this theory, about 20 per cent of the old faces will disappear every four years. New faces will step in to replace them and take a role in the continuing circulation of elites. But the Constitution Tribunal's rulings on May 30 has turned this process upside down. Not only did the Constitution Tribunal rule to disband the Thai Rak Thai Party; it also banned 111 executives of the party from politics for five years over electoral fraud. In one swoop, the Thai Rak Thai, which had controlled 377 out of 500 MPs, was destroyed along with a vast number of the political elite. To his credit, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had brought in several new faces and gave them prominent roles in Thai politics such as Somkid Jatusripitak, Suriya Jungrungreangkit, Purachai Piumsombun, Suranand Vejjajiva, Sudarat Keyuraphan and Chaturon Chaisang, among others. But with most of this new generation of political elites axed by the Constitution Tribunal, Thai politics has only to turn to old skeletons. Samak Sundaravej and General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who belong to the Jurassic Age of Thai politics, have found themselves as valuable assets once again. At least they have name recognition, something the new faces do not have. This a "recirculation of the elites", in the words of my old political-science professor Dr Montri Chenvidkarn. "This is similar to a situation in which all the key players of a football club die in a plane crash. Now the club must scurry for the second- or third-class players to rebuild the team," he said. If only five or 10 executives of the Thai Rak Thai were banned, Samak would never have made a comeback and become a potential leader of the People Power Party. The Thai Rak Thai group has now transformed itself into the People Power Party. Samak is an ultra-rightist politician, known for his anti-Communist views of the past and his strong alliance with the military. Of late, he has forged an alliance with Thaksin and has made it clear that he stands at opposite sides with General Prem Tinsulanonda, the president of the Privy Council. Samak still commands loyalty from his former Bangkok constituents. As a former MP and governor of Bangkok, he has hard-core support of at least 200,000 to 300,000 people in Bangkok, although he has been deprived of having any youth left. Samak's comeback to Thai politics reflects the desperate wish of the Thai Rak Thai group to stay alive. Still, it is better for the Thai Rak Thai group to go for Samak rather than pick a nobody without name recognition. Imagine what would happen if the People Power Party manages to win enough seats to form a coalition government with other parties? Well, Thailand will have Samak as prime minister. Again, you can imagine that a lot of fierce opposition would turn up again. The same story goes with General Chavalit, who went through a disastrous premiership between 1996 and 1997. During that time Thailand devalued the baht and had to seek a financial-rescue package from the International Monetary Fund. His political future was declared dead in the water. Yet after selling off his New Aspiration Party, which commanded a political stronghold in the Northeast, to Thai Rak Thai, General Chavalit managed to stay on with the party until he was forced to the sidelines as Thaksin rose to the heights of his power. But General Chavalit has refused to die. During the early days of the Council for National Security, he was able to rock the Surayud government and the top military brass with his behind-the-scenes manoeuvrings. Some believe that he still has links with Thaksin. Others believe that he can change at any time to suit the politics of the day. There are rumours that he might join the People Power Party, but General Chavalit might instead opt to return to his stronghold in the Northeast. He now hopes that he can also become prime minister for a second time if his political base gives him a decent number of MPs. The Matchima group of Somsak Thepsuthin, who has also been banned from politics, is still a political force to reckon with. There are rumours that Pinij Charusombat is bringing his MPs to join him instead of Suwat Liptapanlop, who commands a stronghold in Nakhon Ratchasima. There is a possibility that Matchima, the Democrat Party and the Chat Thai Party will form a coalition to contend for power in the next election. The Democrat Party dominates the South and about half of Bangkok. Abhisit Vejjajiva will have to prove that he has the guts to carry him to Government House. In the referendum on the 2007 charter last Sunday, there were largely three groups of voters - those who were still loyal to Thaksin and the Thai Rak Thai group, those who were suspicious of the military and those who wanted the country to move on. The first two groups voted against the referendum, while the last group cast "yes" votes. The margin in favour of the charter was very narrow. This should send a strong signal to General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the Army chief, that he should stay out of politics or risk facing a strong political uprising. It is ironic that after the coup, old faces are returning to Thai politics because of the uprooting of the Thai Rak Thai. It looks as if little has been achieved in terms of the political advancement of the country. With Thaksin fading away, there have been no new strong contenders for the Thai premiership. Only Abhisit has stepped out to declare that he is ready for the top job. Others are nowhere to be seen. Again, to his credit, Thaksin built up a strong leadership, with the party's policy revolving around his personality and his premiership. He bypassed local leaders through his newly appointed managers. He pursued European-style politics, bringing virtually all the executive power under his sole control. In this regard, other up-and-coming leaders still have a long way to go to match Thaksin in style, although they have to be careful not to model themselves after his poor record of good governance.
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