Why is it necessary for Samak Sundaravej, the prime minister, to also serve as defence minister? Why has General Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, signalled to the Thaksin Shinawatra camp that a civilian might not be suitable to hold the portfolio? Why did General Sonthi Boonyaratglin send out a message of support to the new Samak-led government? These are three important matters that should be closely examined as Samak forms his Cabinet. The stability of the Samak coalition will also depend on how it works with the military.

The first two questions are related. There are now two candidates for the Defence portfolio: Samak or General Ruengroj Mahasaranond, the former supreme commander. If Ruengroj, who is close to Thaksin, were to take this post, it would signal that the government would like to compromise with the military when it comes to the annual reshuffles. The reshuffles take place in April and October. At least, the forces could settle matters among themselves.

But if Samak were to become defence minister, which is now likely, it means the government is ready to take on the military. As a civilian, Samak would sign the reshuffles without having to consult the military.

It is clear that the Samak government, a nominee of the former prime minister, is aiming to take on the military. In April it will kick out military officers who supported the coup leaders. By October, it will try to remove Anupong as Army chief and appoint him as supreme commander instead. Once this is done, Samak will have the military under his wing.

Pojaman Shinawatra, the wife of Thaksin, has told the court that her husband will return to Thailand in May to fight the criminal case related to the Ratchadaphisek land deal. The timing of Thaksin's return, if he decides to do so, is interesting because it will take place after the first round of military reshuffles.

There is a report that Anupong, who played a key role in the coup, is not happy that Samak may also serve as defence minister. The report also indicated that he would like to strike a deal with the incoming government. Earlier, the name of former Army chief Prawit Wongsuwan was floated as a candidate for the Defence portfolio. Prawit was more acceptable to the military.

Anupong should not rush to make a deal. He should keep cool while the winds of politics blow the other way.

Sonthi is also facing the same dilemma. He was the coup leader who removed Thaksin from power, but he failed to uproot the remnants of the Thaksin regime. The military's game plan to keep Thaksin at bay has been a big mess. Sonthi had supported the Puea Pandin Party, hoping that it would provide a counter to the People Power Party in the Northeast. As it turned out, the military could not stop the political force of the PPP there. Puea Pandin was routed. Its members, most of whom are ex-Thai Rak Thai, have followed the law of gravity by agreeing to join the Samak government as a coalition partner.

Sonthi has returned from a trip to the Middle East. There is speculation that he might seek refuge there or even in Libya. Another rumour has it that he has already bought a home in Malaysia, where he might need to hide if he cannot resist the winds of change in Thai politics. He really has few places to go.

Yesterday, he held a news conference to signal his support for the incoming government. He said every Thai, even the opposition, should give the Samak government a chance. Sonthi has spoken to Thaksin twice on the phone since the PPP won the election in December. "It was a brotherly talk. There were no conditions," Sonthi said.

We all know that Thaksin will never forgive the coup leaders or the Assets Examination Committee, which has been going after his family. Now that his nominee government is about to assume power, everyone is anticipating Thaksin's next move. The coup leaders are in disarray, while Thaksin himself is not in a hurry to declare victory. The situation remains fluid. There will be attacks and counter-attacks throughout the year.